Bills O-Line Is Statistically Plummeting

When you go by analytical statistics, particularly those by a renowned entity like Pro Football Focus, a portrait of the Buffalo Bills offensive line is downright repugnant—at least for three-fifths of the culprits.

I won’t burden you on the painstakingly sophisticated lengths Pro Football Focus goes in grading and ranking each player in the NFL. If you desire firsthand knowledge on how they grade and can spare the time, read it here.  Otherwise, take me at my word when saying most praise their findings as prized information.

Just don’t ask Buffalo Bills head coach Doug Marrone for an endorsement.

Tim Graham of the Buffalo News probed Marrone following practice Thursday for his take of the poor PFF grades at guard.  The head coach didn’t seem eager to commend its authenticity.

“I don’t know how they grade it,” Marrone said. “I don’t know anything about those reports. Someone said something about one of the players we were playing against, what was he ranked, and I don’t agree with that.  I don’t know what they grade it on or how they grade it. I find it very difficult though to have someone grade a player when they have no idea what he’s supposed to do on every single play, but I’m not saying they can’t get a general feel.”

If you’re an advocate of the “numbers never lie” viewpoint, sixty percent of the Bills offensive line has been dreadful.

In surveying a list of the 75 offensive guards ranked by PFF, you’d be forced all the way to the very bottom to locate Bills right guard Erik Pears. He’s dead last on the list with a cumulative minus-17.2 grade, and there’s no one breathing down his neck for 75th place either.

No more than four steps from the cellar owned by Pears is his rookie teammate, Cyril Richardson. He’s ranked No. 72^---- giving Buffalo statistically two of the four most bottom feeder guards in the business.

Interestingly enough, these grades show a flip-flop in tendencies, with Pears far inferior at run blocking (-13.3) than protecting the passer (-5.1). What's more, Pears is nearly 4 full points lower than any other guard in the NFL when the Bills run the football.

Meanwhile Richardson has been decent when the Bills run (-0.6) while abysmal (-9.9) when E.J. Manuel or Kyle Orton drop back to pass. To be more precise, Richardson’s tied for the lead among NFL guards in quarterback hits allowed (six) despite making just three starts.

Things are similarly gloomy at right tackle. Bearing in mind he was a seventh-round pick, the perception’s been that rookie Seantrell Henderson is flourishing in first NFL campaign. According to PFF’s rankings, that’s quite fictitious. Not only has Henderson increasingly struggled as a starter, he’s now the second-lowest rated tackle in the NFL (-19.7) behind only Minnesota’s Matt Kalil. It’s particularly bad when the Bills run, as Henderson has the worst grade of any offensive lineman in the league (-10.5) by a noticeable margin.

In all, he’s graded negatively in all six games and has been charged with four quarterback sacks, eight hits and nine hurries.

The significance of Pro Football Focus, or any grading system can be contested from here to eternity.  Still, whether you’re a nonchalant fan viewing with buddies at the local pub or a team’s director of player personnel, it’s palpably understandable the Bills offensive line has a lengthy road ahead of him to become an asset to a franchise desperate to break a 14-year playoff drought.

“It comes on us,” Marrone said.  “I got a do a better job coaching them and the coaches have to a better job, and we have to continue to develop.”

You’d think one unproblematic solution would be plugging back former starter Kraig Urbik at either guard spot. From an analytical standpoint Urbik graded positively and been ranked among the top 25 guards by PFF the past two years.  Besides, how much worse could Urbik be than the current incumbents?

For whatever reason, Marrone seems in no hurry to find out.

“I think we feel comfortable with what his (Urbik’s) role is with the team right now,” he said. “I think if someone is not playing well to a point they’re not improving, I think that’s obviously a possibility. I think those guys are getting better in there, and collectively we’ve got to keep them coming along.”

Ditto for the chances of second-round rookie tackle Cyrus Kouandjio supplanting Henderson anytime soon. In fact, he may not play tackle at all.

“We feel very comfortable with the tackles we have right now,” Marrone said. “We do have him playing some guard. He’s playing on the scout team and we’re working on developing him.”

Thankfully, there’s some good news—statistically speaking, of course.

It’s been much better for veteran center Eric Wood, who’s graded a plus 0.4 on the season to rank 16th out of 38 centers.  Wood hasn’t given up a sack this year but has been charged with four quarterback hits, all coming in the past three weeks. He’s no world beater, but he’s not part of the problem either.

Left tackle Cordy Glenn gave up an ugly sack to New England’s Chandler Jones that led to an Orton lost fumble that had Bills fans angered, but the PFF grade sheet suggests he’s played just fine this season. Glenn’s a plus 7.4 so far; ranking ninth of 72 tackles, with his best two games statistically coming the past two weeks. Keep in mind, Glenn missed basically all of training camp and the preseason with an illness. He’s probably the one guy on the line you can count on improving each week.

In fairness to Marrone, he hasn’t exactly been dealt a great hand when it comes to his line.  Richardson and Henderson are not only rookies, but fifth and seventh round picks respectively.  Pears is a journeyman tackle playing guard and with Chris Williams out for the year, is likely to stay there. Kouandjio may be a highly touted second-rounder, but it’s been clear since training camp he’s not NFL ready. Urbik and Chris Hairston offer versatility but not much else—at least if you read between the lines when Marrone speaks of them.

Marrone readily admits the line remains a work in progress.

“It needs to better, there’s no doubt about that. We need better play out of everybody up front. That’s what happens when you lose. When you win, everyone thinks its fine and dandy.  You’re never really playing as well as you think.”